recession

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Inflation: A global crisis on the horizon?

New inflation data from the US has induced fears that the world is teetering on the brink of a global recession. Join Labib Mashrur as he explores why prices are rising and how it affects us all.

The human condition: the economy’s worst enemy

Economic downturns and market crashes have long been accepted by society as the norm, yet we find ourselves in deeper holes as each financial crisis hits us. Is there a reason? Andrew Wong explains that we are the reason.

The Virtues of Contrariness in Economic Forecasting

Economists as a whole are notorious for their poor forecasting predictions, which is why the saying “economists predicted nine out of the last five recessions,” is so well known. Economic forecasting is no doubt a difficult task. There are those few economists who are known for ‘getting it right’ or perhaps are just plain lucky. Neither obtaining an economics degree nor working as a professional economist can guarantee success. Of course, no forecasts are 100% correct and we can expect small errors in the numbers. However at times these forecasts are the opposite of actual outcomes and we experience unexpected economic meltdowns like the Global Financial Crisis and the Euro Crisis, during times when economists had predicted strong robust growth. So it isn’t a surprise that the credibility of economists as a whole has come under fire these past few years, and that economic forecasts are taken less seriously than before.

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Koo’s Keynesian Key to the Balance Sheet Recession

I had the privileged opportunity to attend the David Finch lecture at the University of Melbourne two weeks ago. Amidst many academics and esteemed guests, Mr. Richard Koo from Nomura Research Institute presented his lecture about Japan’s burst asset bubble, and its lessons which are now applicable to many of today’s troubled economies. Koo asserted that the problem was unlike the textbook-typical case of recession. Instead, countries like the United States, the UK, Spain and Ireland were suffering from what he called a ‘balance sheet recession’[1], akin to what Japan suffered from the 1990s through to the mid-2000s.

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