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The ReTurnbull Movement – the future of the Liberal Party?

Now that Kevin Rudd has regained his position at the helm of the Australian Labor Party, the soap opera that is Australian politics has almost immediately turned itself to the future of the relatively stable Liberal Party. Specifically, rumours are now flying about the unsung ambitions of shadow communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull to topple Tony Abbott before the election, and ride on a wave of popular admiration to the Prime Ministership. At least, that’s what the media seems to think.

Questions now arise however – who is this man, and what does he want? And, possibly more importantly, what impact would his return to the leadership of the Liberal Party (if it ever occurred) have on its policies, prospects and the public?

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A ‘rational’ analysis of the ALP leadership debacle

What was Kevin Rudd thinking? Seriously. Why would anyone with an ostensibly insatiable desire for reclaiming the prime ministership let the precarious ambience of uncertainty develop to the extent that it did only to then decline an opportunity to challenge? Well, it turns out that Rudd was simply making the ‘optimal’ strategic choice given the circumstances he found himself in.

The leadership saga, for the most part, pertained to two closely related variables: firstly, whether Rudd would challenge Gillard by standing for the leadership in a caucus vote and, secondly, whether a majority of the 100 members eligible to vote in the Labor caucus would back Rudd in a ballot. The relationship between these is that, as was later confirmed, Rudd would only be comfortable challenging if he had a caucus majority and, additionally, the caucus members would only risk switching allegiances if they thought that Rudd would actually run for the leadership (due to the repercussions of supporting the loser in a ballot).

However, despite these two variables being inextricably linked, it’s important to note that other sources of influence further complicated the respective decision-making processes for both Rudd and caucus members.

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‘Black hole’ in the system threatens good public policy, Moran Says: Deakin Policy Forum 2012

By Joan Wu, ESSA Events Director 2012

Terry Moran, former Labour secretaryDuring a speech at the Deakin Policy Forum this week, Terry Moran called for more accountability and transparency in our troubled system of government. Moran, former secretary to Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, was quick to emphasise that it is not the quality of civil service, which is exemplary, but rather the nature of parliamentary democracy in the current system that is to blame.

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